Signs of Complete Hindu Consolidation Behind BJP in Uttarakhand's Manglaur Assembly By-Poll:

Today’s results of the Manglaur by-poll:

- INC: 37.91%
- BJP: 37.4%
- BSP: 23.37%

For the first time, the BJP has secured the second position in this constituency, which has historically been a contest between the BSP and INC.

Demography of Manglaur assembly constituency:

The Manglaur assembly constituency includes Manglaur town and its surrounding areas. Manglaur town is the only Muslim-majority town in Uttarakhand, with an 87% Muslim population according to the 2011 census. The adjacent areas have a significant Hindu population, making the overall Muslim percentage in this constituency approximately 60-70%.

History of Manglaur assembly past election results:

2002:
- BSP: 39.9%
- INC: 27.4%
- BJP: 15.6%
- RLD: 5.34%

2007:
- BSP: 36.9%
- RLD: 32%
- INC: 26.9%
- BJP: 1.8%

2012:
- BSP: 34.03%
- INC: 33.07%
- RLD: 26.66%
- BJP: 2.84%

2017:
- INC: 38.58%
- BSP: 35.29%
- BJP: 20.87%
- RLD: 4.02%

2022:
- BSP: 37.18%
- INC: 36.5%
- BJP: 21.36%
- RLD: 0.3%

Historically, the BSP has won four out of five times since the formation of Uttarakhand. Congress has won it just once. The BJP has never come first or second in this constituency, even when they have won the state. They have come third three times and fourth twice. The heavy Muslim population in the constituency has been a key factor in this trend.

However, this time, the BJP has come second and nearly won the constituency, losing by just 0.5% (422 votes). This is a phenomenal performance for the BJP, especially in a heavily Muslim-dominated constituency. It suggests that Hindus have consolidated behind the BJP in this by-poll, and it is possible that a portion of Muslims also voted for the BJP. This shift can be attributed to the leadership of Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami. Before the by-poll, the Chief Minister confidently stated that the BJP would break the jinx of never having won this constituency in its history. He took all the necessary steps to secure a victory for the BJP this time. Unfortunately, despite these efforts, it was just bad luck that the BJP narrowly lost by a micro-margin. Despite the narrow loss, the BJP’s performance indicates rapid growth in areas where they have historically been weak.